Russia teaches Tajikistan a lesson

Maybe it was a Tajik overreaction, but definitely, definitely, was an overreaction (politically calculated) on the Russian side. Hundreds of Tajik immigrants were invited by the Russian authorities to beat it this month after Dushambe dared to arrest a Russian pilot and his Estonian colleague who landed their plane in its territory with no authorisation. The Tajik authorities say they were smugglers, but Russia refuted - of course, as you know, the Russian Federation is not influenced at all by crooks and mobsters, so such accusation is really outrageous. More than a million Tajiks live in the Russian Federation. Many are illegally in the country, but most certainly are honest people who work really hard to send money to their families in the poorest of the former Soviet Central Asian Republics. Anything that affects these immigrants in Russia is bound to have a serious effect in the economy of the country. Of course, it didn’t take long for the Tajik authorities to release the Russian.


The fact is that Russia is about to go to the polls, and Putin is eager to make a profit on the anti-immigration sentiment that has taken the country. Actually, he doesn’t even need to do that – his party will surely win by a landslide the Parliamentary election in December, and then next year Tsar Vladimir will certainly be back to his throne. This anti-immigration sentiment has been growing for years – to a point that it has lead to some laughable remarks, like those of Chief Sanitary Officer of Russia, Gennady Onishchenko, who suggested that the Tajik immigration be halted on health grounds (curiously, on previous occasions, Onishchenko recommended that wine imports from Georgia and Moldova be halted, when the relations between those countries and Russia went sour). However, the decision of Russia is not only about exploiting the current trend. It is about highlighting its control and power over Tajikistan – a country which is still so dependent of Russia, even 20 years after its “independence”. It takes place in a moment in which Russia is about to adopt, together with Kazakhstan and Belarus, a Customs Union (which probably will be more harmful than beneficial to Astana, but certainly will be very good for Moscow). Anyway, a question needs to be asked: Tajikistan, how dare you believe you could do anything against a Russian citizen? You naughty, naughty country.

Dancing with Karimov

Busy weeks in the new Great Game. As it was during the original one, in the 19th century, Uzbekistan is a top prize. Sick and tired of playing with Pakistan, the US now has decided to look again at Afghanistan’s northern neighbour. First, the Senate in Washington decided to lift restrictions on US military assistance to Karimovland. Then Obama called the Uzbek leader to butter him up during the former Soviet country’s 20th Anniversary, and, finally, this week, State secretary Hillary Clinton popped in for a quick visit, with the usual nagging about Human Rights and the usual Karimov promises of (20 years overdue) reforms. It is clear that the US is courting Uzbekistan and, again, Human Rights won’t be an issue. The Examiner.com’s Dwight L. Schwab, Jr. strikes the perfect tone on the situation, have a look.

Tashkent is now contemplating the possible effects of the withdrawal of all foreign military troops from Afghanistan in 2014. A possible rise on regional violence is forecast. Here is a very good view on that, by an expert that believes that Uzbekistan’s geopolitical importance will definitely grow in the next few years. Russia sure is aware of that and is lobbying hard all countries in the region. Kazakhstan is supporting czar Putin’s dream of an Eurasian Union. There were also fireworks with the creation of a free trade zone including Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. As usual, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan decided to wait and see. Certainly they will dance the usual waltz with Washington and Moscow, and possibly Beijing, before deciding their partner for this party.