Winds of change in Turkmenistan?

If Russia woke up from its lethargic political Putincracy for a series of unexpected protests this month, maybe this is a sign of good things to come in the political arena in Central Asia. And, indeed, some winds of change have recently been felt in the region. Can you guess in which country? Well, I couldn’t, until I saw the news. Turkmenistan.

The country is known for being the most isolated and averse to any sort of reform in the region. Especially political reform. Well, last July the president himself, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov (above), announced that any Turkmen would be able to vie for the Presidency in the Elections set for February 12th, 2012 (read here an analysis about what’s at stake). Yes. He promised free and fair elections “according to the UN and OSCE electoral standards”. Ouch. Poor Saparmurat Niyazov. The good old Turkmenbashi, the former leader of all Turkmen who commanded a mammoth personality cult in the desert nation and died unexpectedly in 2006, certainly would be quite shocked with the possibility. Well, since president’s promise, nothing really happened (that we know of – Turkmenistan is still pretty closed to all eavesdropping). No legislation was passed to regulate political parties, for example. The only party in the country is still the official one, the Democratic Party of Turkmenistan. Maybe the government forgot about its promises...

But then, this week, something odd happened. A former member of the Turkmen cabinet, the former Culture and Tourism minister Geldimurat Nurmuhammedov, came out and criticised the lack of democracy there. And he gave his name, AND allowed the press to publish his remarks AND identify him as the source – read more about this here. This is very, very uncommon in Turkmenistan. What does this mean? Does it mean there are some cracks in the ruling elite? Maybe. If the former minister said something like this so boldly, sure he received the blessing of the President himself. If this is the case, the problem is explaining why he did that. I am not sure, but would guess that his criticism might be an excuse for the government to announce reforms that might hurt some members of the elite, maybe in time for the elections.

On the other hand… maybe not. The guys is just a former minister, for God’s sake (for now – he might be a presidential candidate, who knows?). And, for the elites in Turkmenistan, the skies are still blue and the Karakum desert is still hot. The so-much-expected changes after the departure of the Turkmenbashi are yet to be seen. Actually, there was a talk that the personality cult would cease to exist. But read this: apparently, now the press in the country has nicknamed Berdymukhammedov arkadag (“protector” in Turkmen). His departed boss also had that nice nickname that was so precious and made him levitate over all regular humans. Oh, and by the way, one of the most talked about signs that Berdymuhammedov was serious about getting rid of the bizarre legacy of Niyazov was the decision of dismantling a golden statue of the Turkmenbashi in the capital, Ashgabat, after his death. The famous statue, which rotates to follow the movement of the Sun in the sky, is up in display again in the city… probably because tourists began to complain. After all, the statue was one of the most important landmarks of the country…

PS. Happy New Year! See you in 2012.

A new wave of Islamist terror in Central Asia?

Is there a new wave of terrorism afoot in Central Asia? There are some indications that it might be a possibility.


First: we already know that Kazakhstan (as seen here some weeks ago) is facing an unseen wave of explosions. At least one of those attacks, the one that took place in October 31st in the Western city of Atyrau, has been reclaimed by a new Islamist puritan group called “Soldiers of the Caliphate”. This group apparently is formed by Kazakh citizens who fought alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan, but at this moment there are just not enough indications that it is the case. The Kazakh government announced a ban on the organisation in the end of last month, after another bombing in Taraz (south) left seven dead. Now, on the 4th of December, there was an obscure episode, with seven dead, near Almaty (the commercial capital of the country, in the South) that might have been terror related.


Second: Uzbekistan knows very well how troublesome an Islamist group can be with popular support in an authoritarian regime. The country has recently seen another, to say the least, obscure episode, but in its border with Afghanistan. In November 17th, an explosion destroyed part of the railway there, in the Surkhandarya Province. At first, the local media said that the attack was "terrorist". Then, absolute silence – it was as if nothing had happened. When it took place, some raised the possibility that the railway attacked was used by the US to transport military supplies to its troops in Talibanland. If that is true, it could mean the beginning of a nightmare for Uzbekistan – that has not seen an attack like this in a long time – and the US alike, as it would indicate that there are pro-Taliban operatives in Uzbekistan. But the most recent theory is that the Uzbeks themselves, and not any jihadist organization, is behind the explosion. It would be a way to punish Tajikistan, with whom Uzbekistan has, let’s say, a not so amicable relationship. Read more about this plausible conspiracy theory here. Interestingly, after the explosion, the Uzbek leader Islam Karimov changed the Governor of the province in which it took place.


Third: Uzbekistan already had a lot of trouble with Juma Namangani and his Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), regarded as one of the most violent and dangerous Islamist movements in the world. Between 1999 and 2001, the IMU conducted a series of incursions that affected Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. For a time, since them, the group was quiet (the death of its leader, Tahir Yuldashev, in 2009, sure played a part in this). Now, in the beginning of December, the authorities announced the arrest in the Moscow of four people supposedly linked to the movement. The four residents of Central Asia were accused of plotting terror attacks.


Fourth: The IMU has just released (interesting timing) a list commemorating 87 “martyrs” of the organisation that died since last year. Probably, the IMU leaders expect the list to have the effect of rallying its supporters to a bloody vendetta against the infidels. Most members of the IMU are supposed to operate now from the Afghan-Pakistan border or... from Northern Afghanistan, not far from Uzbek lands.


Fifth: On December 6th, Afghanistan had two unprecedented bomb attacks targeting specifically the local Shia minority, who was celebrating a religious holiday. One of the bombings was in the capital, Kabul; the other in Mazar-i-Sharif – a Northern city very close the border with Uzbekistan and that, over the last years, has remained relatively calm in spite of the chaos in other parts of the country. Nearly 60 people died. The Taliban denied any responsibility for these attacks, which echo the Sunni versus Shias bombings that have tormented Iraq for years now. The attacks in recent years in Afghanistan had a different and clear target – the foreign troops and government authorities. What does an unseen attack like this mean, at this moment, so near the Uzbek border?


It is necessary, of course, to take all of these facts and suppositions with a pinch of salt. There are many interests involved in an escalation of the Islamist threat in Central Asia. Russia is aggressively trying to reassert its dominance in the region and would love to have a stronger military presence there to counterbalance the US influence and also, of course, to avoid any further risks to its own borders after the Americans leave Afghanistan in 2014. Karimov and his Kazakh colleague Nursultan Nazarbayev could use the Islamic threat to show strength, announce new security measures and, of course, submit the local Muslims to even more repression. More terrorism would give a good excuse for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to demand more financial help, and so on. One thing, though, is for sure: the Islamist threat is alive in Central Asia, and the best way to deal with it is establish proper dialogue and an alliance with the Muslim world, tackle poverty in the region, offer good schools and allow the people to have a say in their own countries. Authoritarianism and more weapons have not solved the problem in the past, and sure won’t solve it in the future when it flares up again.

Russia teaches Tajikistan a lesson

Maybe it was a Tajik overreaction, but definitely, definitely, was an overreaction (politically calculated) on the Russian side. Hundreds of Tajik immigrants were invited by the Russian authorities to beat it this month after Dushambe dared to arrest a Russian pilot and his Estonian colleague who landed their plane in its territory with no authorisation. The Tajik authorities say they were smugglers, but Russia refuted - of course, as you know, the Russian Federation is not influenced at all by crooks and mobsters, so such accusation is really outrageous. More than a million Tajiks live in the Russian Federation. Many are illegally in the country, but most certainly are honest people who work really hard to send money to their families in the poorest of the former Soviet Central Asian Republics. Anything that affects these immigrants in Russia is bound to have a serious effect in the economy of the country. Of course, it didn’t take long for the Tajik authorities to release the Russian.


The fact is that Russia is about to go to the polls, and Putin is eager to make a profit on the anti-immigration sentiment that has taken the country. Actually, he doesn’t even need to do that – his party will surely win by a landslide the Parliamentary election in December, and then next year Tsar Vladimir will certainly be back to his throne. This anti-immigration sentiment has been growing for years – to a point that it has lead to some laughable remarks, like those of Chief Sanitary Officer of Russia, Gennady Onishchenko, who suggested that the Tajik immigration be halted on health grounds (curiously, on previous occasions, Onishchenko recommended that wine imports from Georgia and Moldova be halted, when the relations between those countries and Russia went sour). However, the decision of Russia is not only about exploiting the current trend. It is about highlighting its control and power over Tajikistan – a country which is still so dependent of Russia, even 20 years after its “independence”. It takes place in a moment in which Russia is about to adopt, together with Kazakhstan and Belarus, a Customs Union (which probably will be more harmful than beneficial to Astana, but certainly will be very good for Moscow). Anyway, a question needs to be asked: Tajikistan, how dare you believe you could do anything against a Russian citizen? You naughty, naughty country.

A road movie in Kyrgyzstan

I know I’ve done this before in the short history of this blog, but I can’t resist: here is another nice photogallery with images from Kyrgyzstan. Look at those roads, at those mountains. Can’t you feel the fresh air, the snow and the dust? Really, I need to do some serious backpacking there.

Terrorists find virgin lands in Kazakhstan

The recent terrorist attacks in Kazakhstan are really troubling for many reasons. Unlike Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, it was never a direct target of Islamist puritans that are known to operate in the region. Actually, Islam is relatively new to this giant country, as big as Western Europe. Most of its population has its roots in nomad tribes that roamed the steppes for centuries and were only “islamicised” after the Russian Empire dominated its territory, on the 19th century. Even so, the Islam that eventually took hold of Kazakhstan was heavily influenced by the traditional customs of the nomads and its shamanistic beliefs. Sufism also plays an important role in Islam here, like it does in Kazakhstan’s neighbours. Puritan Islamism, especially the one that preaches violence and encourages suicide attacks, is utterly against all those “transformations” in Islam. And so it is also utterly alien to these lands.

But a recent decision by President Nursultan Nazarbayev to tighten displays of religious expression was a good reason for the puritans to step up their northern operations. The law, which took effect on October 25th, makes it mandatory for religious organizations to register with the Kazakh authorities. At the same time, the government banned blogs accused of fostering extremism. These “security measures” set the scenario for two big attacks: on October 31st , the eastern city of Atyrau was shaken by two explosions and a suspected suicide bomber was killed, and then on November 12th a new suicide attack took place in Taraz (South). But the tension between the authorities and militants was brewing even before the law became a reality. There were two explosions in May and in September suspects of plotting terrorist attacks were arrested in Atyrau.

What do those attacks mean? First: if there is puritan Islamism, there are people that were wooed by its promises. Those people certainly are not rich – quite the opposite. In a country that has being constantly praised by its stability and its good environment for business, for its vast natural resources and its progressive, westernized society, those militants are the outcasts. Left behind, ignored by the state and with no education, they fell victims to the same lunatics that found fertile ground elsewhere in neighbouring countries. Second, it is crystal clear, as seen many times in the past, that attacking Islam does not lower the risk posed by extremists, but exactly the opposite. Third, by adopting this law without pondering its consequences, and so encouraging new attacks, Nazarbayev is offering an excuse for other leaders to follow suit and crush (again) their Muslims. Of course I am talking about Islam Karimov. The Uzbek deity, who previously this year had allowed unprecedented celebrations during the Eid ul-Fitr, suddenly decided to warn artists against the use of religious themes in their works (read more here). The number of pilgrims allowed to travel to Mecca was also limited. Karimov loves to attack its own countrymen under the guise of being “defending the country from extremists”. Muslims in general can be regarded as extremists if, for example, they grow a beard or go to mosques too often. By spreading terror, in the most traditional Stalinist way, Karimov reasserts its power. Nazarbayev needs to withdraw this new law and show, in unequivocal terms, his respect to religious freedom. He also needs to do what all other leaders in the world are supposed to do: turn all its citizens into real citizens, not outcasts. Otherwise, God knows what consequences we might see in the near future in Kazakhstan and its neighbours.

Kyrgyzstan dreams of stability after imperfect elections

After a difficult test, the people of Kyrgyzstan have reasons to celebrate. The October 30th presidential elections took place with no violence. Of course, there were protests from oppositionists, who claimed that there were huge problems with voter lists, multiple voting and other irregularities. Certainly there were flaws – not a few indeed. But, at least, according to international observers, it was a valid election, in which around three million people cast their ballots to choose Almazbek Atambayev as President for the next six years. Compared to its neighbours Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, ruled by Soviet kings that certainly will remain in power until their very last seconds in this planet, Kyrgyzstan has shown that it is a beacon of democracy. It is very, very unlikely that the Kyrgyz will inspire, anytime soon, any change whatsoever in other corners of Central Asia. However, apparently, its path is starting to become a source of envy, as can be seen in this brilliant article.

Atambayev relied on the industrial and Russified north and Uzbeks from the south to defeat his two main adversaries, nationalists who commanded strong support from the southern Kyrgyz. Hundreds were killed in violent ethnic clashes in June last year, mainly in the south. Now, apocalyptic forecasts of more violence are not entirely out of question yet, as the defeated candidates didn’t recognise the preliminary results and might still be planning to rally their supporters - small groups of protestors have already taken to the streets. However, it is reasonable to think that the Kyrgyz are a bit tired of all the instability that, since 2005, resulted in two presidents being ousted during popular revolts. Besides, Atambayek triumph was a clear one – with around 63% of the ballots, he avoided a potentially complicated second round. Had he won by a whisker, certainly the opposition case would be stronger. In other words – if there were irregularities, probably they were not, on their own, enough to elect the former prime-minister.

Well, what now? First and foremost – no big changes on the horizon. Atambayev is a strong supporter of the Parliamentarian experiment in the country, unique in Central Asia, and is not expected to return powers to the executive, as other candidates promised. He also will go on strengthening its links with Russia. The US has already been warned – its lease of an air base in Kyrgyzstan, used to support the war in Afghanistan, will end in 2014 and will not be renewed, said the president elect in remarks after his victory. Finally, Atambayev will certainly not adopt any nationalistic measures that might have a negative impact on the southern Uzbeks, who have given him their support.

Dancing with Karimov

Busy weeks in the new Great Game. As it was during the original one, in the 19th century, Uzbekistan is a top prize. Sick and tired of playing with Pakistan, the US now has decided to look again at Afghanistan’s northern neighbour. First, the Senate in Washington decided to lift restrictions on US military assistance to Karimovland. Then Obama called the Uzbek leader to butter him up during the former Soviet country’s 20th Anniversary, and, finally, this week, State secretary Hillary Clinton popped in for a quick visit, with the usual nagging about Human Rights and the usual Karimov promises of (20 years overdue) reforms. It is clear that the US is courting Uzbekistan and, again, Human Rights won’t be an issue. The Examiner.com’s Dwight L. Schwab, Jr. strikes the perfect tone on the situation, have a look.

Tashkent is now contemplating the possible effects of the withdrawal of all foreign military troops from Afghanistan in 2014. A possible rise on regional violence is forecast. Here is a very good view on that, by an expert that believes that Uzbekistan’s geopolitical importance will definitely grow in the next few years. Russia sure is aware of that and is lobbying hard all countries in the region. Kazakhstan is supporting czar Putin’s dream of an Eurasian Union. There were also fireworks with the creation of a free trade zone including Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. As usual, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan decided to wait and see. Certainly they will dance the usual waltz with Washington and Moscow, and possibly Beijing, before deciding their partner for this party.